Thursday, September 08, 2005

FPM's stock selection criteria


Stock selection criteria: Sustainable dividend income with dividend returns over investment exceed 10% per annum.

Do you think this is impossible? With current maximum dividend yield is only about 7%, how do you get one that exceed 10%?

This is the stock selection criteria that base on FPM's financial planning principle.

FPM’s financial planning principle

Stock selection begins with knowing the strategies you adopt for financial planning. The heart of financial planning is to build assets that generate sustainable income.


Many think stock is a bad example of “assets that generate income” or assets(i). Generally average dividend yields for Malaysia stocks, in a good market conditions, range below 8%. Should Malaysia’s market moves toward what U.S. is heading, dividend yield could be lower in future. The dividend would be too little as a source of income as compare to the investment, it seems.

But the key is not dividend yield (dividend over current share price); the key is dividend over your original investment cost.

You bought a stock at RM1,000 five years ago which gave net dividend yield of 6% or RM60. Today, due to real organic growth both of its earnings per share (EPS) and dividend per share doubled. Share price increased. Let’s say its net dividend yield stays at 6% (It doesn’t matter, actually). Fund managers say, “The yield is reasonably attractive.” But for you, who bought the share at RM1,000, now enjoy an annual dividend of RM120, which is annual return on investment of 12%!

When you buy a share, your investment cost is fixed. With growth, good financial policy and consistent dividend payout policy, your dividend per share would increase as time goes by. Your annual ROI, over time, increases even if the stock dividend yield remains low (if the share price goes up.)

First set of criteria: growth stock that gives or will soon give sustainable and consistent dividend payout

This lays down the first set of FPM’s stock selection criteria,
1. The business and earning per share must grow
2. It is real growth. Such EPS growth must be translated into real hard cash or reduction of net debts. (real earning growth)
3. The management is willing to pay out the earnings as dividend. Dividend will grow in tandem with earnings. So, it should lead to a better dividend pay out per share.

4. What is not:
EPS grow without real incoming cash that lead to increase of cash or reduction of borrowings. Dump those shares that show profit but with a much higher increase in Stock, Trade Debtors less Trade Creditors. (compare to sales). Such company is either suffering a temporary operational inefficiency or outright cheating in their accounting.

5. Exceptions
On dividend payout there are exceptions. We can disregard dividend payout, IF and only IF
a. we are convinced the company is going through a high growth phase that required cash.
b. In the case of Second Board’s counters, if the company need to accumulate sufficient reserves to upgrade to main board.

Other than a. and b. we shall not buy into any company that does not fit into the four criteria above.

Second set of criteria: well managed cash cow

Well managed cash cow that generating hard cash profit, employing little assets and with certainty for growth. All profits turn into cash and with high dividend payout ratio.


We basically disregard what the share prices are or going to be but solely focus on the growth of its business earnings, the ability to generate hard cash profit and dividend payout. We accumulate assets (stocks) that generate consistent good income (dividend) which we call it assets(i), remember?

The key, dividends grow, but your original COST of investments does not. (Business grow, value grow, share prices may or may not increase) So if you select a stock with business that grows, does well and has cash to give out consistent dividends, your income increase and your return over your investment (ROI) increases over time.