Tuesday, December 20, 2005

The Law of the Stock Market

1. Market movements
Market moves in a way that is identical to sea waves. There are always turns after consecutive movements toward one direction. There are small waves within bigger waves. Occasionally there will be extended long waves or tripped short waves.

2. Business cycles
The force against business cycle is structural changes. Institutional intervention may influence the timing of the business cycle but only significant structural changes can change the business cycle.

3. News & market trends
Good news has more positive impacts in cyclical up trend than in cyclical downtrend. Bad news has more negative impacts in cyclical down trend than in cyclical uptrend.

4. Irrationality, the investors' collective behaviour
Both sides, up & down, always reach a peak point of impossibility, e.g. "it cannot be that high" but it does, "it cannot be that low" but it does, "the market goes mad", etc. Remember, due to greed and fear factors, market always overshoots in a business cycle induced run or slump.